12 briefings added to the desk this week, drawn from named-operator talks — each dated to when the talk was recorded.
№ 01 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
Ukrainian drone strikes intentionally cause 'mission kills' by disabling critical ship systems rather than sinking them.
Instead of sinking, drones targeted vulnerable areas like engine rooms and bridges to disable ships and force crew abandonment. This strategy aims to disrupt Russian logistics by rendering vessels inoperable, creating chaos, and inducing fear among crews, thus making shipping in certain areas unsustainable without direct engagement by navies.
Takeaway
Implement enhanced defensive measures and training for crews against drone threats, focusing on mitigating mission-kill vulnerabilities.
№ 02 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
The ongoing attacks will likely escalate Russian retaliation against Ukrainian grain exports and shipping routes.
This concentrated Ukrainian campaign to disrupt Russian fuel supplies to Crimea will likely prompt systematic Russian counter-attacks against Ukrainian port logistics, specifically grain shipments. The use of submarines and mines, which Russia has largely withheld, could escalate the conflict’s impact on Black Sea commerce, threatening broader regional supply chains.
Takeaway
Develop contingency plans for major disruptions to Black Sea shipping, including alternative routes and cargo sourcing, anticipating increased risk to all vessels.
№ 03 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
Ukraine conducted systemic drone strikes on 48 Russian and affiliated vessels in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.
Over five days in early July 2026, Ukrainian unmanned systems forces struck 48 vessels, primarily oil tankers. These attacks targeted ships identified as part of Russia's shadow fleet, supporting Russian military operations and circumventing sanctions, particularly those supplying Crimea.
Takeaway
Assess your exposure to geopolitical conflict zones and update risk assessments for voyages, even if not directly involved in conflict.
№ 04 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
Attacked vessels are typically inland waterway ships, now used for Black Sea logistics, with low air drafts and smaller capacities.
The targeted vessels, like the Captain Barman, are designed for shallow inland waterways such as the Don and Volga rivers. These 5,000-7,000 DWT ships have low air drafts crucial for passing under bridges, but their design also makes them vulnerable in open sea operations against drone attacks, illustrating how Russia repurposed its domestic fleet for military logistics to Crimea.
Takeaway
Evaluate the suitability and vulnerability of repurposed tonnage operating outside its original design parameters, especially in contested areas.
№ 05 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
Not all targeted vessels are part of Russia's 'shadow fleet'; international commercial vessels are also at risk.
While mainly targeting the 'dark fleet,' Ukraine also hit vessels like the Marshall Islands-flagged Yasa Polaris, chartered by Chevron. This indicates a broader risk beyond sanctioned entities, as any vessel operating in the conflict zone, even under legitimate trade, can become collateral damage, increasing insurance and operational complexities.
Takeaway
Verify all vessels operating in high-risk zones, regardless of flag or charterer, for adherence to all applicable sanctions and monitor for potential misidentification as 'dark fleet' vessels.
№ 06 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
War risk insurance for Strait of Hormuz transits has increased substantially, impacting operational costs.
War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are now ranging from 2% to 6% of the vessel's value. For a $100 million ship, this translates to $2 to $6 million per transit. While this cost can be factored into charter rates, the primary deterrent for shipowners is not the financial expense but the unquantifiable risk of losing the vessel and future service, which insurance does not fully cover.
Takeaway
Evaluate the financial and operational impact of increased war risk premiums on Strait of Hormuz transits and adjust contract terms or routing accordingly.
№ 07 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
The UN agency stresses Iran cannot unilaterally control the international seaway of the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the UN emphasize that Iran cannot restrict transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz, citing international law which predates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Iran controls only half of the Strait's territorial waters, and Persian Gulf nations retain the right to access the open ocean through this passage.
Takeaway
Advise legal and operational teams to uphold international law regarding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran's declarations.
№ 08 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
The IMO recommends avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to heightened military actions against Iran.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has advised vessels to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This directive follows a critical period where the IMO attempted to release over 11,000 trapped seafarers and their vessels, successfully aiding around 3,500. The current advisory indicates a breakdown in previous coordination efforts and a significant escalation of risk.
Takeaway
Heed the IMO's advisory and re-route or delay transits through the Strait of Hormuz until security conditions demonstrably improve.
№ 09 · What's Going on With Shipping · Jul 2026 Open
Despite efforts to neutralize threats, 1% of undetected threats pose significant risks to commercial shipping.
Military strikes against Iranian targets, while removing 99% of immediate threats like drones and missiles, cannot eliminate all risks. The remaining 1% of undetected or resilient threats, such as camouflaged attack boats or mines, are sufficient to deter commercial shipping and drive up insurance costs. This residual risk is a core barrier to restoring normal traffic.
Takeaway
Acknowledge that even with military intervention, residual risk in conflict zones will keep insurance rates high and deter commercial shipping until a comprehensive security solution is implemented.
An SAP demo showcased AI assistants managing an S/4HANA transformation across project, custom code, and development roles.
The demo illustrated a full system analysis, custom code checks, and automated remediation. Joule, the conversational interface, initiated the transformation, recommending systems and data types. A dynamic migration cockpit tracked progress, showing agents working in parallel. The Custom Code Assistant detected over 1,000 ATC findings, with a human-in-the-loop process where developers review and accept AI-proposed code changes. This approach ensures human oversight while automating much of the tedious work, integrating with familiar tools like Joule, ATC, and IDEs.
Takeaway
Request a direct demo of SAP's new AI assistants to understand their practical application and human-in-the-loop integration for your specific migration challenges.
SAP is introducing AI assistants to reduce the cost and complexity of ERP transformations.
SAP launched the RISE offering in 2021 to facilitate business transformation. While previous efforts focused on value creation through tools like Signavio and LeanIX, the new focus addresses the cost and complexity often associated with large-scale transformations. Generative AI and agentic AI capabilities are now mature enough to automate numerous tasks, tackling the high initial investment customers previously faced when seeking extensive transformations. This aims to simplify and de-risk the migration process.
Takeaway
Evaluate new AI-driven tools from SAP to significantly reduce the manual effort and associated costs in ERP migration and modernization projects.
SAP aims to cut ERP migration effort by 35-50% using AI assistants, with key agents releasing soon.
Early feedback from customers and partners confirms the value proposition of these agents, with some waiting to adopt them immediately. The ambition is to reduce overall migration effort by 35% to 50% by automating complex and manual tasks. Specific examples include reducing data quality analysis from months to weeks and accelerating test case creation, which historically took 30-60 minutes per case, to just minutes. The first agent is releasing in June, with the majority available by August-September, and full product maturity targeted by year-end.
Takeaway
Prioritize evaluating the first AI agents released in June, particularly for data quality and test case creation, to realize immediate efficiency gains in your SAP transformation.
