Diesel prices remain above $5, driven by refining capacity issues rather than crude costs; crack spreads are over $100/barrel, far exceeding the typical $15-$25 range.

Ultra-low distillate inventories have reached levels last seen in the early 2000s or late 1990s due to factors like Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and elevated U.S. Gulf Coast diesel exports. Multi-Service Fuel Card CEO Aaron Decker projects diesel will stay above $5 for the foreseeable future. This dynamic indicates that fuel surcharges based on retail benchmarks may not accurately reflect the actual cost paid by most fleets, as fewer than 10% of carriers pay full retail price.