Truckload tender rejections stalled near 13.5% heading into Labor Day weekend, falling short of the 18% anticipated by some analysts.
SONAR data shows 2026 tender rejection rates peaked at 17.5% earlier this cycle, but have not replicated the typical August uptick seen in prior years (2023, 2024, 2025). This orderly market behavior suggests a supply-driven environment, with intermodal rail absorbing significant long-haul freight and preventing demand-driven tightening in truckload capacity. While spot rates are down 2.5% month-over-month to $3.29 per mile, they remain up 44% year-over-year, and contract rates are up 17% year-over-year.
Monitor weekly AAR rail freight data and market-specific volume trends in coastal markets post-Labor Day, as current conditions suggest rail is key to truckload capacity stability. Shippers should review routing guide efficacy given narrowing spot/contract rate gaps, and carriers should manage capacity carefully without expecting a sharp rejection surge.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/peak-season-is-coming-but-where-is-the-freight-surge